Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9222

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.910). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9221, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9222
    25 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC

    TMPRSS6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTMPRSS6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered61709b2271b67d8c

    discovery-0.04 p=0.910 n=9

    replication-0.69 p=0.041 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.910)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    03a47f1f4ce13d090590105c…
    follows 057f0f7f8821…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9222: TMPRSS6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.235, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.47 (p 0.051, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.45 to -0.21, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.235, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMPRSS6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.