Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9188

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.47, p 0.197). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9187, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9188
    25 Oct 2026, 01:10 UTC

    TRAPPC13

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTRAPPC13 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered014b22fa4a190d6c

    discovery-0.47 p=0.197 n=9

    replication+0.04 p=0.911 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.47, p 0.197)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5d0b6413ec9d39a76fd47b1c…
    follows 27deb7a0ad5c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9188: TRAPPC13 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.26 (p 0.298, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.29 (p 0.243, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.31 (p 0.204, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.38 to -0.15, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.26 (p 0.298, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.59 (p 0.0096, n 18) vs -0.26 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TRAPPC13 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up TRAPPC13 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.30 p 0.286 (needs p < 2.3e-4)