Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9023

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.60, p 0.089). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9022, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9023
    24 Oct 2026, 21:11 UTC

    BID

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBID in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4d2c25c6b5e327be

    discovery-0.60 p=0.089 n=9

    replication-0.16 p=0.682 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.60, p 0.089)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2e2a3a8ea9b6b5283f66e539…
    follows 4b01f05c87ba…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9023: BID in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.235, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.39 (p 0.114, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.39 (p 0.109, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.49 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.235, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.61 (p 0.0072, n 18) vs -0.29 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BID in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up BID · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.20 p 0.477 (needs p < 2.4e-4)