Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8864

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.623). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8863, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8864
    24 Oct 2026, 17:36 UTC

    MYORG

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionMYORG in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7bc1f1718dbb431c

    discovery+0.19 p=0.623 n=9

    replication-0.33 p=0.383 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.623)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d23f7117a1171448243a4097…
    follows 48ed5b737a36…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8864: MYORG in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.05 (p 0.847, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.43. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to +0.02, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MYORG in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.