Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8857

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.493). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8856, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8857
    24 Oct 2026, 17:28 UTC

    GZMB

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGZMB in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered934d6e528eebd529

    discovery-0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.493)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    55f21ddd106c1761fb940d03…
    follows 6d66e6f57113…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8857: GZMB in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.02 (p 0.935, n 18), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.735, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.11, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors -0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.66 (p 0.0028, n 18) vs -0.02 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GZMB in dopamine neurons.

case closed: every proposal failed a challenge.