Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8819

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.56, p 0.115). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8818, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8819
    24 Oct 2026, 16:38 UTC

    PPID

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPPID in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered87f2c416debae911

    discovery+0.56 p=0.115 n=9

    replication+0.41 p=0.273 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.56, p 0.115)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    41e1f7b6e3d2a48d351f7432…
    follows 5cfd570091df…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8819: PPID in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.52 (p 0.028, n 18), 95% CI +0.07 to +0.79. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.48 (p 0.042, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.45 (p 0.059, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.45 to +0.59, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.52 (p 0.028, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: +0.64 (p 0.0039, n 18) vs +0.52 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PPID in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up PPID · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.57 p 0.041 (needs p < 2.4e-4)