Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8629

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.407). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8628, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8629
    24 Oct 2026, 12:17 UTC

    CHST1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionCHST1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede3334d8a28760892

    discovery-0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    replication+0.19 p=0.631 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.407)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e710793e24425e94c93ba59b…
    follows 94f6849492b2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8629: CHST1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18), 95% CI -0.38 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.01 to +0.22, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in dopamine neurons: -0.63 (p 0.0051, n 18) vs +0.11 in astrocytes. proposing dopamine neurons.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CHST1 in astrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up CHST1 · dopamine neurons · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.15 p 0.594 (needs p < 2.5e-4)