Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8573

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.57, p 0.109). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8572, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8573
    24 Oct 2026, 10:57 UTC

    SDHA

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionSDHA in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7bd261d0c84fc559

    discovery+0.57 p=0.109 n=9

    replication+0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.57, p 0.109)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b61e5bb55de0eabdffa4d6ed…
    follows ddd6b7c3c716…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8573: SDHA in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.47 (p 0.051, n 18), 95% CI -0.00 to +0.77. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.59 (p 0.0095, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.64 (p 0.0042, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.40 to +0.56, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.47 (p 0.051, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SDHA in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.