Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8523

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.533). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8522, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8523
    24 Oct 2026, 09:48 UTC

    TSPAN7

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTSPAN7 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbe1052e42d78edfd

    discovery-0.24 p=0.533 n=9

    replication+0.41 p=0.277 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.533)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5787eea3a281a69699beea2f…
    follows a0b211cc5b28…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8523: TSPAN7 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.05 (p 0.847, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.15 (p 0.561, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.07 to +0.17, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TSPAN7 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.