Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8522

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.873). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8521, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8522
    24 Oct 2026, 09:48 UTC

    TSPAN7

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionTSPAN7 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered14f3c59d792ba2c1

    discovery+0.06 p=0.873 n=9

    replication-0.09 p=0.825 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.873)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a0b211cc5b287d856b8cdf76…
    follows 93552556dc00…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8522: TSPAN7 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.781, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.603, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.14 to +0.07, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TSPAN7 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.