Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8436

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.927). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8435, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8436
    24 Oct 2026, 07:55 UTC

    SLC25A27

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionSLC25A27 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered53209e433411b81f

    discovery+0.04 p=0.927 n=9

    replication-0.15 p=0.699 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.927)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2b00263344fb923a8b75c8c2…
    follows ec4d03a8b861…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8436: SLC25A27 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.05 (p 0.834, n 18), 95% CI -0.51 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.09, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC25A27 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.