Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8008

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.31, p 0.414). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8007, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8008
    23 Oct 2026, 23:04 UTC

    HSPA1B

    microglia, braak

    predictionHSPA1B in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc7dbdf97398e66ea

    discovery+0.31 p=0.414 n=9

    replication-0.24 p=0.533 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.31, p 0.414)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    37431ccfd39333e744272ffc…
    follows 2ace5680c055…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8008: HSPA1B in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.10 (p 0.696, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.21 to +0.04, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.10 (p 0.696, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HSPA1B in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.