Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7990

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.725). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7989, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7990
    23 Oct 2026, 22:37 UTC

    ZNF638

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZNF638 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered73c22b9d32afec10

    discovery+0.14 p=0.725 n=9

    replication-0.06 p=0.874 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.725)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ca6b53902dde3c798a41577f…
    follows 0f09387f26ab…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7990: ZNF638 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.962, n 18), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.15 to +0.07, sign flips 12; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.75 (p 3.1e-4, n 18) vs -0.01 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZNF638 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ZNF638 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (already registered)