Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7961

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.65, p 0.060). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7960, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7961
    23 Oct 2026, 22:01 UTC

    STAB1

    microglia, braak

    predictionSTAB1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede7aa9b43ca388099

    discovery-0.65 p=0.060 n=9

    replication-0.48 p=0.186 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.65, p 0.060)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    83bbac24c4a3ad5917170c48…
    follows 7aba40572900…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7961: STAB1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.56 (p 0.016, n 18), 95% CI -0.81 to -0.13. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.49 (p 0.037, n 18). holds up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.49 (p 0.037, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.74 to -0.50, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.56 (p 0.016, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for STAB1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.