Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7917

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.581). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7916, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7917
    23 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC

    RNF128

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRNF128 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcb5952476ef2b50c

    discovery+0.21 p=0.581 n=9

    replication+0.42 p=0.255 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.581)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8974fc34995a748a90ba0844…
    follows 5278dae6a572…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7917: RNF128 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.28 (p 0.258, n 18), 95% CI -0.21 to +0.66. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.39 (p 0.109, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.47 (p 0.049, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.18 to +0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.28 (p 0.258, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RNF128 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.