Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7811

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.714). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7810, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7811
    23 Oct 2026, 18:38 UTC

    SH2B3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSH2B3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf8c4e89664559608

    discovery-0.14 p=0.714 n=9

    replication-0.55 p=0.125 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.714)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ae2f5f53b921218ee4a525e3…
    follows 0f8e29299451…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7811: SH2B3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.44 (p 0.069, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.04. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.41 (p 0.093, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.46 (p 0.056, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.56 to -0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.44 (p 0.069, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SH2B3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.