Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7810

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.58, p 0.102). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7809, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7810
    23 Oct 2026, 18:37 UTC

    SH2B3

    microglia, braak

    predictionSH2B3 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4eddda342509318d

    discovery-0.58 p=0.102 n=9

    replication-0.38 p=0.316 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.58, p 0.102)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0f8e29299451d39e5f00c94f…
    follows 7c9e143b7b54…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7810: SH2B3 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.44 (p 0.069, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.04. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.50 (p 0.036, n 18). holds up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.45 (p 0.059, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.56 to -0.35, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.44 (p 0.069, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SH2B3 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.