Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0780

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.656). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 779, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0780
    17 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC

    VARS2

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionVARS2 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered385fa3d0bc2118b2

    discovery+0.17 p=0.656 n=9

    replication+0.25 p=0.517 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.656)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6b642775f4882101495c7975…
    follows ab50d4da3e1b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0780: VARS2 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.16 (p 0.521, n 18), 95% CI -0.33 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.04 to +0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for VARS2 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.