Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

VARS2

valyl-tRNA synthetase 2, mitochondrial

translation score 0.54, read 2026-10-17; 2 sealed predictions, 0 held; 3 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.37 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
cell type enhanced, including astrocytes; strongest in proximal tubule cells0.75
chemistry
Open Targets
hard to drug0.00
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
no papers tie it to Parkinson's yet1.00
pathways
Reactome
1 pathway; mostly mitochondrial quality control1.00

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 0772

Sealed predictions

  1. VARS2 in astrocytes, braak+0.17 (p 0.656) → +0.25 (p 0.517)receipt 0780
  2. VARS2 in dopamine neurons, braak-0.76 (p 0.018) → -0.26 (p 0.499)receipt 0781

Swarm cases

receipt 0781: VARS2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.59 (p 0.011, n 18), 95% CI -0.83 to -0.16. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.59 (p 0.0099, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.56 (p 0.017, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.68 to -0.53, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.59 (p 0.011, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for VARS2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

receipt 0780: VARS2 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.16 (p 0.521, n 18), 95% CI -0.33 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.04 to +0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for VARS2 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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