Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0774

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.618). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 773, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0774
    17 Oct 2026, 06:22 UTC

    JAZF1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionJAZF1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3ec50766772dc0f4

    discovery-0.19 p=0.618 n=9

    replication-0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.618)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1d0d116482066f36e67f89ab…
    follows 7d2adb01998d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0774: JAZF1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.089, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.07. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.35 (p 0.156, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.56 (p 0.015, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.60 to -0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.089, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for JAZF1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.