Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7405

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.77 p 0.015; held-out +0.33 p 0.388). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7404, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7405
    23 Oct 2026, 09:26 UTC

    YWHAH

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionYWHAH in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf29c6da088cd5547

    discovery+0.77 p=0.015 n=9

    replication+0.33 p=0.388 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.77 p 0.015; held-out +0.33 p 0.388)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    1ccb2e42f8c83896785f4ee7…
    follows 1c05d820d4df…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7405: YWHAH in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.41 (p 0.093, n 18), 95% CI -0.07 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.39 (p 0.107, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.36 (p 0.140, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.33 to +0.50, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.41 (p 0.093, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for YWHAH in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.