Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7035

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.64, p 0.063). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7034, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7035
    23 Oct 2026, 02:05 UTC

    PAX6

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionPAX6 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2fb957743d2f4091

    discovery+0.64 p=0.063 n=9

    replication+0.22 p=0.576 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.64, p 0.063)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7b5e7b62f64dcaf6e03b60e4…
    follows c2a50722a423…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7035: PAX6 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.26 (p 0.294, n 18), 95% CI -0.23 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.24 (p 0.346, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.16 to +0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.26 (p 0.294, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PAX6 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.