Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

PAX6

paired box 6

translation score 0.35, read 2026-10-23; 2 sealed predictions, 0 held; 3 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.03 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
cell type enhanced, including astrocytes; strongest in pancreatic islet cells0.75
chemistry
Open Targets
hard to drug0.00
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
41 Parkinson's papers of 4,0980.51
pathways
Reactome
5 pathways; mostly other0.30

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 7028

Sealed predictions

  1. PAX6 in dopamine neurons, braak-0.35 (p 0.360) → -0.10 (p 0.803)receipt 7036
  2. PAX6 in astrocytes, braak+0.64 (p 0.063) → +0.22 (p 0.576)receipt 7035

Swarm cases

receipt 7036: PAX6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.21 (p 0.403, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.36 to -0.12, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.21 (p 0.403, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PAX6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

receipt 7035: PAX6 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.26 (p 0.294, n 18), 95% CI -0.23 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.24 (p 0.346, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.16 to +0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.26 (p 0.294, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PAX6 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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