Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6937

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.89 p 0.0013; held-out -0.68 p 0.042). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6936, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6937
    22 Oct 2026, 23:50 UTC

    NAA11

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionNAA11 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf1ef53ae7b13934a

    discovery+0.89 p=0.0013 n=9

    replication-0.68 p=0.042 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.89 p 0.0013; held-out -0.68 p 0.042)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    6f9f23349e2c9b78f31c7507…
    follows 56020eb4eb50…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6937: NAA11 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.17 (p 0.509, n 18), 95% CI -0.33 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.13 (p 0.597, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.04 to +0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NAA11 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.