Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6271

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.849). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6270, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6271
    22 Oct 2026, 08:59 UTC

    PARL

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPARL in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered62d02e06a60b1969

    discovery-0.07 p=0.849 n=9

    replication+0.28 p=0.467 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.849)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a9f7a5fb22dc505703f98cb3…
    follows 03ccdf6d522e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6271: PARL in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.05 (p 0.854, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.677, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.24 (p 0.337, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.08 to +0.21, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PARL in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.