Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6270

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.61, p 0.078). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6269, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6270
    22 Oct 2026, 08:59 UTC

    PARL

    microglia, braak

    predictionPARL in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7c6c7cb6b999697b

    discovery+0.61 p=0.078 n=9

    replication+0.27 p=0.474 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.61, p 0.078)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    03ccdf6d522e4697f9d416e9…
    follows 678c083d083a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6270: PARL in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.48 (p 0.046, n 18), 95% CI +0.01 to +0.77. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.45 (p 0.063, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.37 (p 0.132, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.41 to +0.65, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.48 (p 0.046, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PARL in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.