Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6263

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.586). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6262, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6263
    22 Oct 2026, 08:50 UTC

    NR0B1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionNR0B1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda89ffa1dac9c5962

    discovery-0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    replication-0.33 p=0.393 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.586)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4847e504484fae6e4f0f8b99…
    follows d9c4d3348135…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6263: NR0B1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.26 (p 0.298, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.53 (p 0.025, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.29 (p 0.250, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.39 to -0.15, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.26 (p 0.298, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NR0B1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.