Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6253

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.79 p 0.011; held-out +0.22 p 0.570). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6252, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6253
    22 Oct 2026, 08:36 UTC

    IAPP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionIAPP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0e0def50305acf0d

    discovery+0.79 p=0.011 n=9

    replication+0.22 p=0.570 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.79 p 0.011; held-out +0.22 p 0.570)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    cf609cf95b3f3c800b42931d…
    follows ead28a4c7487…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6253: IAPP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.46 (p 0.055, n 18), 95% CI -0.01 to +0.76. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.49 (p 0.041, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.46 (p 0.055, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.39 to +0.65, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.46 (p 0.055, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IAPP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.