Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6191

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.321). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6190, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6191
    22 Oct 2026, 07:14 UTC

    TMEM119

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTMEM119 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredaa1d6407c0437440

    discovery-0.37 p=0.321 n=9

    replication-0.61 p=0.080 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.321)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    404d898fdd97c3628ec6532a…
    follows 25fac3c11bcc…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6191: TMEM119 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.53 (p 0.024, n 18), 95% CI -0.80 to -0.08. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.75 (p 3.3e-4, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.62 to -0.47, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.53 (p 0.024, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMEM119 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.