Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6118

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.54, p 0.133). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6117, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6118
    22 Oct 2026, 05:38 UTC

    ARL5B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARL5B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb151035e0d1bc5a1

    discovery+0.54 p=0.133 n=9

    replication+0.72 p=0.028 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.54, p 0.133)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    47e99ac8dfe255b1fa11eeb6…
    follows 0973b58f62dd…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6118: ARL5B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.71 (p 0.0010, n 18), 95% CI +0.36 to +0.88. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.59 (p 0.0096, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.58 (p 0.011, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.67 to +0.78, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.71 (p 0.0010, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARL5B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.