Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6030

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.78 p 0.014; held-out -0.40 p 0.287). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6029, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6030
    22 Oct 2026, 03:37 UTC

    CTNND2

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionCTNND2 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede9c7a54496d26663

    discovery+0.78 p=0.014 n=9

    replication-0.40 p=0.287 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.78 p 0.014; held-out -0.40 p 0.287)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    c39de2ccbe0bda79b02991f1…
    follows 6b0f14615564…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6030: CTNND2 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.10 (p 0.702, n 18), 95% CI -0.39 to +0.54. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.09 (p 0.722, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.02 to +0.26, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors +0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CTNND2 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.