Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5929

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.52, p 0.148). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5928, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5929
    22 Oct 2026, 02:03 UTC

    ERMN

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionERMN in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2258af028da83cbb

    discovery+0.52 p=0.148 n=9

    replication-0.26 p=0.502 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.52, p 0.148)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    44d90a20820871f75c0cbaa3…
    follows ef47185f6cf1…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5929: ERMN in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.06 (p 0.814, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.671, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.06 to +0.19, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ERMN in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.