Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5835

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.646). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5834, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5835
    21 Oct 2026, 23:56 UTC

    HLA-DQA1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHLA-DQA1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb50891d77f0ae98e

    discovery+0.18 p=0.646 n=9

    replication-0.16 p=0.689 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.646)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d7ee1dc4fa6e3bce0738130b…
    follows 695b5510254c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5835: HLA-DQA1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.05 (p 0.840, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.16, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HLA-DQA1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.