Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

HLA-DQA1

major histocompatibility complex, class II, DQ alpha 1

translation score 0.51, read 2026-10-21; 1 sealed predictions, 0 held; 2 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.04 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
expressed broadly, no clear home in brain cells0.40
chemistry
Open Targets
a small-molecule pocket0.60
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
6 Parkinson's papers of 1,6440.74
pathways
Reactome
9 pathways; mostly dopamine synapse1.00

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 5827

Sealed predictions

  1. HLA-DQA1 in dopamine neurons, braak+0.18 (p 0.646) → -0.16 (p 0.689)receipt 5835

Swarm cases

receipt 5835: HLA-DQA1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.05 (p 0.840, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.16, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HLA-DQA1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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