Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5662

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.714). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5661, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5662
    21 Oct 2026, 20:05 UTC

    SARM1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSARM1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2d339c4147a775a8

    discovery-0.14 p=0.714 n=9

    replication-0.78 p=0.013 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.714)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b866803856105c827250431b…
    follows 188c771fc171…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5662: SARM1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.37 (p 0.130, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.12. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.45 (p 0.063, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.52 to -0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.37 (p 0.130, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.69 (p 0.0014, n 18) vs -0.37 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SARM1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up SARM1 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (already registered)