Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5661

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.767). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5660, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5661
    21 Oct 2026, 20:05 UTC

    SARM1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionSARM1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5af779b9942c075f

    discovery-0.12 p=0.767 n=9

    replication-0.28 p=0.459 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.767)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    188c771fc171c9e639e3cfa1…
    follows 3c108535e30c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5661: SARM1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.09 to +0.15, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.69 (p 0.0014, n 18) vs +0.03 in oligodendrocytes. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SARM1 in oligodendrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up SARM1 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort: not measured