Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5622

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.74 p 0.022; held-out -0.51 p 0.163). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5621, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5622
    21 Oct 2026, 19:12 UTC

    FGFRL1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFGFRL1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9383835e1618bb31

    discovery-0.74 p=0.022 n=9

    replication-0.51 p=0.163 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.74 p 0.022; held-out -0.51 p 0.163)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    e89010cb0f5a7d01036f8c63…
    follows 9ee1232674ba…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5622: FGFRL1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.50 (p 0.033, n 18), 95% CI -0.79 to -0.05. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.44 (p 0.064, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.44 (p 0.064, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.58 to -0.46, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.50 (p 0.033, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FGFRL1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.