Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5621

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.250). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5620, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5621
    21 Oct 2026, 19:10 UTC

    ADGRG6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionADGRG6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7983a26a63fc4ece

    discovery-0.43 p=0.250 n=9

    replication+0.51 p=0.165 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.250)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9ee1232674badcb4e2025e94…
    follows 6639fa2dea43…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5621: ADGRG6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.15 (p 0.549, n 18), 95% CI -0.34 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.14 (p 0.591, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.15 (p 0.561, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.02 to +0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.15 (p 0.549, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ADGRG6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.