Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5489

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.907). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5488, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5489
    21 Oct 2026, 16:19 UTC

    LDB3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLDB3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7c73bee861daceeb

    discovery+0.05 p=0.907 n=9

    replication-0.76 p=0.017 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.907)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    43561d6cc3f2fa292f7ac056…
    follows 15deff46e8d6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5489: LDB3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.39 (p 0.109, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.09. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.55 (p 0.017, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.53 to -0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.39 (p 0.109, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LDB3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.