Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5480

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.90 p 8.1e-4; held-out -0.14 p 0.714). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5479, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5480
    21 Oct 2026, 16:08 UTC

    NSMF

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionNSMF in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered43e22f533e6d8fb8

    discovery-0.90 p=8.1e-4 n=9

    replication-0.14 p=0.714 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.90 p 8.1e-4; held-out -0.14 p 0.714)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    08ec455c8bb3e46d50349738…
    follows 4641efdc20c0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5480: NSMF in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.59 (p 0.010, n 18), 95% CI -0.83 to -0.17. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.59 (p 0.010, n 18). holds up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.61 (p 0.0067, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.71 to -0.53, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.59 (p 0.010, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NSMF in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.