Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5478

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.964). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5477, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5478
    21 Oct 2026, 16:05 UTC

    VPS37A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionVPS37A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf8c5786f6ee3c54a

    discovery-0.02 p=0.964 n=9

    replication+0.72 p=0.028 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.964)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a26a243de436cd6052560390…
    follows f84fe3b4b29c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5478: VPS37A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.36 (p 0.137, n 18), 95% CI -0.12 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.37 (p 0.132, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.55 (p 0.019, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.28 to +0.46, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.36 (p 0.137, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for VPS37A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.