Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5458

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.714). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5457, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5458
    21 Oct 2026, 15:41 UTC

    CCR1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCCR1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered94a5f94833bf2355

    discovery-0.14 p=0.714 n=9

    replication-0.03 p=0.947 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.714)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9c2357329bfbcbc008070b1a…
    follows 28bc58836be5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5458: CCR1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.781, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.515, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to +0.04, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CCR1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.