Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5457

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.909). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5456, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5457
    21 Oct 2026, 15:40 UTC

    CCR1

    microglia, braak

    predictionCCR1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf5e20780142c1580

    discovery-0.04 p=0.909 n=9

    replication-0.19 p=0.619 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.909)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    28bc58836be522a08e306b92…
    follows 296197087463…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5457: CCR1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18), 95% CI -0.56 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.01, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CCR1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.