Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5425

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.672). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5424, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5425
    21 Oct 2026, 14:56 UTC

    GPR37L1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGPR37L1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered49f255815f2f3521

    discovery+0.16 p=0.672 n=9

    replication-0.56 p=0.116 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.672)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    932ee5a043c98229bf1bffa4…
    follows 4c283fab27ae…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5425: GPR37L1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.00 (p 0.997, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.14 to +0.08, sign flips 10; without severely affected donors -0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.67 (p 0.0024, n 18) vs -0.00 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GPR37L1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up GPR37L1 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (already registered)