Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5385

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.52, p 0.155). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5384, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5385
    21 Oct 2026, 14:07 UTC

    TTL

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionTTL in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered91a1fe8eb8e7db57

    discovery-0.52 p=0.155 n=9

    replication+0.06 p=0.877 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.52, p 0.155)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3943f8290641e7e8feccdf7f…
    follows c92b28765380…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5385: TTL in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.32. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.32 to -0.07, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TTL in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.