Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5262

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.89 p 0.0013; held-out -0.61 p 0.084). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5261, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5262
    21 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC

    LLGL1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionLLGL1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddab0a737cbb6358e

    discovery-0.89 p=0.0013 n=9

    replication-0.61 p=0.084 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.89 p 0.0013; held-out -0.61 p 0.084)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    c31ad2ea2f00eea842ff05e7…
    follows 9bcf43d73744…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5262: LLGL1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.53 (p 0.023, n 18), 95% CI -0.80 to -0.09. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.55 (p 0.017, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.58 (p 0.013, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.66 to -0.47, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.53 (p 0.023, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LLGL1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.