Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5211

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.807). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5210, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5211
    21 Oct 2026, 10:27 UTC

    ETNPPL

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionETNPPL in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredba9ce4bdac095ba9

    discovery+0.10 p=0.807 n=9

    replication-0.06 p=0.873 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.807)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    bd2cfdbc3e55fc3ad62e6e61…
    follows 2d266f046375…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5211: ETNPPL in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.03 (p 0.922, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.11 (p 0.658, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.08, sign flips 10; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ETNPPL in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.