Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5202

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.852). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5201, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5202
    21 Oct 2026, 10:16 UTC

    PLCG1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPLCG1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0582c27b05f56385

    discovery+0.07 p=0.852 n=9

    replication-0.52 p=0.147 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.852)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c59831ee95871efa1f7c9b0f…
    follows 70d3c7d1c517…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5202: PLCG1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.49 (p 0.041, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.02. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.049, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.57 (p 0.014, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.58 to -0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.49 (p 0.041, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PLCG1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.