Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5125

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.232). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5124, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5125
    21 Oct 2026, 08:34 UTC

    CSF2RA

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCSF2RA in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddb235102bcbbc8be

    discovery-0.44 p=0.232 n=9

    replication-0.73 p=0.025 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.232)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b3a631d83089f0fb5e5f289b…
    follows 29aa3372c78d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5125: CSF2RA in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.58 (p 0.011, n 18), 95% CI -0.82 to -0.16. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.57 (p 0.013, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.60 (p 0.0080, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.65 to -0.52, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.58 (p 0.011, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CSF2RA in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.