Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5122

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.875). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5121, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5122
    21 Oct 2026, 08:31 UTC

    ENHO

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionENHO in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered56b112a476f95e61

    discovery+0.06 p=0.875 n=9

    replication-0.79 p=0.011 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.875)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    23e85288ac661dcbb85d5db3…
    follows 1353ff302943…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5122: ENHO in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.243, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.20 (p 0.418, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.44 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.243, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ENHO in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.